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November Niner Makes Interesting Staking Offer

He’s already guaranteed ninth place money ($7xx) and now Amir Lehavot is looking to lock-up an even larger payday from his WSOP Main Event final table run, offering 30% of his action at ICM, which works out to $29,248 for 1%.

According to Lehavot, his parents have 10% of his action, a friend has another 10%, and Amir has the other 80% –of which he is now selling up to 30%. Lehavot currently sits in 2nd place behind chip-leader JC Tran.

Normally buying the pretty accomplished Amir Lehavot at even money (ICM) would seem like a good idea against this lineup, but based on the payout schedule Amir would have to finish in 3rd place for investors to see a profit, and the profit would only be about $640 on a $29,248 investment. Of course, should Lehavot finish in 1st or 2nd place, earning investors $14,625 in profit per % and $47,015 respectively.

Furthermore, investors would need to submit tax information should he finish in 3rd place or higher.

Here is a look at the ROI for investors based on each finishing position are:

  • 1st place: 160%
  • 2nd place: 51%
  • 3rd place: 2%
  • 4th place: -30%
  • 5th place: -53%
  • 6th place: -70.4%
  • 7th place: -83.2%
  • 8th place: -92.8%
  • 9th place: -100%

Lehavot explained his reasoning for the pricing on 2+2:

Clearly I believe I have a skill edge and hence my finish distribution is better than ICM and hence this is a +EV investment for investors. I’m effectively selling at no markup.

I understand that investor ROI is quite limited here, i.e. the best case scenario is a 2.6x return. The downside is also significantly lower than when typically buying action, 84% of the time investors are going to get atleast 30% back, etc.
Basically because it’s the FT already the variance I’m transferring to investors per $1 is much smaller than when buying action at the beginning of a tourney.

So anyways, that’s the way I look at it. I’m fortunate enough where selling this action isn’t a high priority for me. Obviously I prefer to sell, and believe it’s a +EV investment for investors, or I wouldn’t have posted. But if I keep my entire 80%, that’s ok. I don’t intend to change the price I’m selling at.

Needless to say, the response to Lehavot’s offer was pretty polarizing; with some players (smart professional players and backers) saying this is good value, while others with the same pedigree claim it is basically a lol offer. Eager to get rewards just by playing your favorite online poker? Check out our Club Titan VIP!

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